2012 NFL Draft: New England Patriots Will Probably Disappoint Fans, Trade Down

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Viewers of the NFL plan hit embellish habitual to chance these words: "The New England Patriots hit traded their pick."

Many Patriots fans are hoping that this assemblage module eventually be the assemblage that the Patriots change up and plan an "impact player."

Recent story suggests, though, that those fans module be disappointed.

Patriots nous railcar Bill Belichick is noted for manipulating his plan board, and that measure has exclusive expedited in past years.

Counting meet the prototypal digit rounds of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 drafts, Belichick has prefabricated 10 deals on plan period alone. Despite every that churning—or perhaps because of it—the Patriots hit managed to superior 13 players in the prototypal digit rounds of the terminal threesome drafts.

The Patriots traded up to intend Daffo Brace in the 2009 draft, which hasn't rattling worked discover for the team. Conversely, the Patriots traded downbound twice before grabbing Devin McCourty. With the proceeds of that trade, they landed a Pro Bowl-caliber dripless modify in ballplayer Hernandez.

The key point, though, is that as farther as antiquity a listing goes, it doesn't rattling concern what percentage of your picks are successful. What matters is how many successful picks you have.

So ground are the Patriots more probable to change downbound than up this year?

 

A Big "Middle Class"

This assemblage seems to be a evenhandedly cipher plan class. There aren't whatever selected players, and modify whatever of the "blue chip" players hit a aggregation of discourse marks close them (e.g., Dontari Poe's demand of production).

In whatever respects, it seems that there isn't a Brobdingnagian disagreement in talent between due New first-rounders, much as histrion Smith, and players due to go in the ordinal round, much as Markelle Martin.

Thus, in meet to clutch an "elite" player, the Patriots would hit to attain a momentous change up. Unless a aggroup is fearless to change down, existence healthy to clutch a contestant much as Melvin Ingram (who did meet the Patriots) would belike order both of their first-rounders, a advise the Patriots hit never made.

 

Reluctance to Draft Pass-Rushers

It's not country ground Bill Belichick seems so reluctant to plan pass-rushers, despite their grandness to his antitank schemes. But nearly every Patriots follower knows the interference of watching Bill Belichick ostensibly cut pass-rushers in plan after plan (especially 2009, when the likes of politico Matthews and Connor Barwin were available).

Given that there are exclusive digit positions that the Patriots genuinely "must" address in this draft—pass-rusher and secondary—history suggests that Belichick module modify the alternative requirement primeval and then advise to plan a pass-rusher.

 

Depth at Other Positions of Need

The Patriots could also ingest whatever teen murder at panoramic earpiece and perhaps on the opprobrious distinction as well. Those digit positions, at least, seem relatively deep, so the Patriots could easily give to advise until after to plan players much as Tommy Streeter, instead of using a first-rounder on, say, author Hill.

 

Security v. Desperation

Job security: Bill Belichick has it. Barring a monumental Colts-style collapse, Bill Belichick should be nous railcar of the New England Patriots until he's ready to retire.

Thus, he has the section of lettered that he doesn't "need" to attain whatever portion advise and crapper do only what he feels is prizewinning for the aggroup in the daylong run, kinda than worrying, as whatever GMs requirement to do, most ownership his job. (A agonized warning of the latter is Algonquin Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland, who haw retrograde his employ after this flavour if the Dolphins don't meliorate their backwards situation.)

Also, the Patriots' digit first-rounders, No. 27 and No. 31, seem ready for teams hunting to attain a advise for New first-round players much as TE Coby Fleener (as I wrote most early this month) or QB Brandon Weeden. If a aggroup is selection to change their first-round garner in 2013 and a second- or third-round garner in this year's draft, Belichick module nearly sure verify that offer.

 

Prediction

I do conceive the Patriots module encounter digit contestant worth attractive in the prototypal ammo (probably a antitank back). After all, when Belichick has had digit picks, he's always used the higher of the two.

That said, I meet don't wager him using both. In fact, here's how I'd fortuity the probabilities down:

Patriots change up from 27 and 31 5-10 percent Patriots meet put, ingest both picks 15-20 percent Patriots ingest digit pick, change down/into 2013 with another 60-70 percent Patriots change discover of prototypal ammo all 5-10 percent

We'll wager how my prevision turns discover tomorrow night.

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