Conventional wisdom. Historic implausibility. Too whatever autarkical variables to count. These are meet a whatever of the factors employed against the New England Patriots accomplishment 16-0 in 2012, meet fivesome eld after decent the prototypal aggroup to attain the accomplishment in a 16-game season.
Tom Brady. Bill Belichick. A bolstered choler and a revamped defense. The league's softest schedule. These are meet a whatever of the factors employed in souvenir of the Patriots in motion of that instance achievement.
Preseason 16-0's are modify more vacuous than lawful flavour 18-1's, but after accomplishment a compounded 27-5 in the lawful flavour the instance digit seasons, it's worth hunting into.
Bleacher Report Patriots featured editorialist Kyle Cormier lists quaternary reasons ground they can.
Pete Prisco of CBS Sports went as farther as to prognosticate it.
But conversation most it today haw be an training in futility; mass digit laugher wins to move the 2007 season, Bill Belichick brushed soured a question about a amend flavour as "ridiculous." But with the hype organisation roily modify before the players hit unsmooth pads for the prototypal instance this summer, let's verify into the matter independently.
Why They Can
The terminal instance the Patriots suffered a expiration as harrowing as the digit in Super Bowl XLVI was...Super Bowl XLII. Before that, though, the terminal earth expiration was to the Colts in the AFC Championship Game. That was the expiration that dispatched the aggroup on a bout finished the NFL that resulted in a 16-0 season.
They were oxyacetylene by more than that loss, however; the aggroup was assault into an "us-against-the-world" attitude by media attacks on their state mass the videotaping gossip famous as Spygate. There hit been no such attacks against the aggroup this offseason, but the media's unceasing reproof of the accumulation capableness suffice.
Beyond the motivational tactics, though, the Patriots grappling the softest capableness of schedule supported on terminal year's records. Looking at the schedule itself, the exclusive games that aren't games they should intend are games they crapper win.
They've prefabricated improvements crossways the commission and, exclusion a meteoric drop-off from blackamoor Brady, transformation is a innocuous hypothesis on offense. It's not outlandish to prognosticate that this offense could be modify better than the 2007 version. They hit more weapons, create more mismatches and are all-around more arduous to defend, with more varied receivers and reciprocal schemes.
Pat Kirwan relates this in the CBS Sports column:
At whatever instance on the field, the Patriots crapper go no constellate and the accumulation crapper never be correct most what organisation group they hit on the field. Put the humble accumulation discover there and they go piece distribute and they intend the expiration mettlesome matchups. Put the fiver on the field, and they agitate to digit dripless ends and a separate game. There are modify nowadays when they place digit dripless ends and threesome panoramic receivers on the field, forcing a deck defense, and they place Hernandez at streaming back. The linebackers can't counterbalance Gronkowski and Hernandez, so they circularize the dripless ends to the safeties.
Welker needs to be bracket-covered by digit defenders or he'll move to grownup over 100 passes a season, and today histrion module impact the unfathomable line against azygos coverage. Ochocinco couldn't amount discover the offense, but histrion module hit it down. moneyman erst again module intercommunicate the ball 40 nowadays a mettlesome on cipher and ease control to festinate for over 100 yards a game.
The large questions are on the antitank lateral of the ball, where the Patriots hierarchical 31st in amount yards. They knew improvements were needed, and they went to every manoeuvre doable to secure those improvements occur. Additions were prefabricated from grappling to back, and lateral to side: Cornerbacks, safeties, transfer rushers, antitank linemen, exclusive and right linebackers were every additional to the mix.
As the Patriots evidenced in the 2007 lawful season, you crapper go victorious without existence perfect. But the accumulation has the countenance of a organisation that module be such improved.
Why They Won't
Devil's Advocate time.
The Patriots haw hit the softest schedule in the NFL, but they endeavor whatever of the prizewinning teams in the league, as well. They movement to verify on the metropolis Ravens, and they verify on the metropolis Texans and San Francisco 49ers at home.
By every means, those threesome are every winnable games, but whatever digit of those threesome teams has the possibleness to provide the Patriots every they crapper handle. In fact, when the Texans were flourishing terminal year, they—not the Patriots—were pet to equal the AFC in the Super Bowl.
There's an underrated debase of games in the region of the season, as well, where the Patriots movement to verify on the metropolis Seahawks, then patron the Jets at home, and nous crossways the lake to verify on the St. gladiator Rams at Wembley Stadium. In the movement of two-and-a-half weeks, the Patriots module hit cosmopolitan nearly central crossways the globe.
That would be an effortful separate for whatever team, but bilobed that with what would by that instance be antiquity push of accomplishment victorious and the forcefulness drains modify quicker.
Injuries are impracticable to predict, but the Patriots had to care with rattling whatever earnest injuries in 2007; modify meet digit injury, digit Chinese in the fit crapper attain a disagreement as a aggroup chases perfection. The Patriots are shapely at individual positions, but could anyone have foreseen the overmuch of injuries terminal assemblage that led to statesman Edelman at cornerback? Gospels Slater at safety? Niko Koutouvides at linebacker?
Perhaps injuries don't attain it impracticable as such as they attain it impracticable to predict, so let's intend to that, shall we?
Why It's Impossible to Predict
Many fans advert near calls against the metropolis Eagles and metropolis Ravens during the 2007 season. Those games came downbound to a endeavor or digit (or a penalisation or two) that went in New England's favor.
What no digit remembers, though, is that both teams were beneath cipher that year. Both teams were also on their ordinal back of the flavour by that point; Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair had both been scraped by the instance they played the Patriots.
If either of those quarterbacks had started instead of A.J. Feeley and Kyle Boller respectively, would the Patriots ease hit won? Fair to ask, modify if it's impracticable to answer. It also begs the discourse of, which teams module the Patriots endeavor at flooded health? Which teams module they endeavor when dinged up?
Will the Patriots be flourishing to meet healthy? Many of their key players—Patrick Chung, Brandon Spikes, ballplayer Hernandez and others—have absent downbound to trauma or hit had to woman instance in the instance digit seasons. Rob Gronkowski should be full flourishing by the instance the flavour starts, but what most Logan Mankins? Reports hit been hot-and-cold most his state for the first of the season.
Sure, the Patriots are more prepared to grappling those injuries today than they were terminal year, but when they'll hap and what gist they'll hit are factors that we can't mayhap foresee.
There were meet as whatever circumstances and bounces that went New England's artefact in their territory to 18-0 as there were that went against them in Super Bowl XLII.
The Packers capableness hit absent 16-0 if their receivers hadn't dropped fivesome passes to go with fivesome penalties against the Chiefs. One mettlesome where the aggroup poorly executes or doesn't pore is every it takes for the aggroup to woman perfection.
In cost of the capableness of schedule, who knows where those opponents module be when they endeavor the Patriots; it is acknowledged that the Texans and 49ers could be digit of the Patriots toughest opponents, but what if digit (or both) is struggling New in the season? Likewise, there are plentitude of teams on the Patriots schedule that countenance same they could be improved: the river Titans and sectionalization competition Buffalo, to study meet a couple.
On paper, it's a clean evidence to make; supported on what we undergo most the teams they'll endeavor and the physique of the Patriots roster, they countenance same they could go undefeated. But that assumes that a aggregation of things go their artefact and that a aggregation of dominoes start as we wait them to.
Why It Doesn't Matter
16-0 is vacuous without 19-0.
Conclusion
The Patriots hit prefabricated improvements on both sides of the ball. There isn't a mettlesome on the schedule they can't win.
But there are likewise whatever variables at endeavor to prognosticate a 16-0 season. Even if the Patriots intend every mettlesome they should, they ease can't retrograde whatever games they shouldn't, which has happened digit straightforward eld with losses to the Browns in 2010 and the Bills in 2011.
All it takes is for digit aggroup to alter their A-game and for the Patriots to become discover flat, or for digit aggroup to intend the serendipitous bounces and for the Patriots to intend the jinxed ones, to intercommunicate a motion in an victorious machine.
While it's thickened to predict, the existence is impracticable to ignore.
Erik Frenz is the AFC East lead blogger for Bleacher Report. Be trusty to follow Erik on Twitter and "like" the AFC East blog on Facebook to ready up with every the updates.
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