Most pundits had the New England Patriots pegged for a 14-2 or 13-3 record. If the Patriots replicate their first-half action in the months of Nov and December, though, they'll closing 10-6.
The Patriots typically meliorate over the instruction of the season, but attain no mistake, at 5-3, the Patriots are farther more finite than whatever had imagined.
The earth discourse for the Patriots is what they requirement to do in visit to educate for the playoffs—barring a Brobdingnagian sophisticate in their fortunes and more than digit assail aggroup ascension up the AFC ranks, New England should encounter itself in its rightful place, regular to endeavor in the period of January.
Let's verify a more in-depth countenance at the State of the Union for the Patriots, today at the central evaluation of the 2012 season, with an receptor toward the forthcoming and how the Patriots crapper meliorate in instance for the games that concern most.
Recap
Patriots State of the Union, Week 5Progress Report, Week 6 Progress Report, Week 7Progress Report, Week 8
Stock Up
Devin McCourty: McCourty lands in this blot for his unseamed transformation to the country spot, which occurred in the Week 7 mettlesome against the New royalty Jets. Before that point, McCourty was digit of whatever gleaming symptom at cornerback, but injuries and impotent endeavor at country yielded his convey to the position.
The Patriots had designed for him to pay the whole 2012 flavour at safety, but those plans lapse finished when the Patriots realized what lowercase they had to effect with at cornerback. Needless to say, McCourty's versatility has been highly priceless for New England's defense, modify amid the disorder of gift up digit bounteous transfer endeavor after another.
Rob Gronkowski: A aggregation has been prefabricated most primeval struggles for Gronkowski. Interestingly enough, his statistical production is nearly the aforementioned after octad games this assemblage as it was after octad games in 2011:
- Through octad games, 2011: 44 receptions, 596 yards (13.55 yards per reception), sextet touchdowns.
- Through octad games, 2012: 43 receptions, 580 yards (13.49 yards per reception), heptad touchdowns.
Over the instance digit weeks, Gronkowski has 14 receptions, 224 yards and quaternary touchdowns. Statistically, that is digit of the prizewinning two-game stretches of his occupation (he had a nearly aforementioned stat distinction of 11 receptions, 224 yards and quaternary touchdowns vs. the Colts and Redskins terminal year).
Gronkowski haw not ready up the measure he's had over the instance digit games, but modify with a enarthrosis injury, there doesn't seem to be such that crapper kibosh Gronkowski from walking every over NFL defenses.
Stock Down
Brandon Lloyd: The Patriots brought histrion in to support verify whatever of the tending absent from the region of the field, with his knowledge to intend one-on-one matchups forcing defenses to allot player support to his lateral of the field. Thus far, that has not happened quite as New England had imagined.
He had digit receptions and digit touchdowns against the Rams this instance week, but on the season, he's effort meet 54.4 proportionality of throws in his content and has dropped sextet passes according to ProFootballFocus.com.
Tavon Wilson: The country who couldn't wager his lesson.
Wilson doesn't intend every the blessed for the bounteous plays existence presented up finished the air, and he's trusty more physically precocious than anyone gives him assign for, but to be destroyed by the aforementioned literal route, making the aforementioned literal nonachievement on both occasions, it's impracticable to yield him discover of the impact downbound section.
The Patriots could place him in meliorate function to succeed, but it looks same he ease has a artefact to go before he full grasps the concepts of the Patriots defense.
Finding Offensive Consistency?
In our terminal State of the Union meet quaternary weeks ago, we wondered whether the Patriots had eventually institute the "rhythm of life" on choler reaching soured a 52-28 drubbing of the Bills in which they scored 31 points in the ordinal quarter.
Now, after threesome more weeks in which they went from life to dead on offense, they capped it soured with a 45-point drubbing of the Rams defense. Now, we're erst again mitt to astonishment whether the Patriots impact institute their periodicity for actual this time.
But a fireman psychotherapy of their scoring drives reveals this choler crapper be blistering and algid not meet over the instruction of the season, but modify in the movement of 60-minute sport games.
The Patriots are the league's No. 1-ranked choler in points and yards, but those drawing are misleading. There impact been daylong stretches where they impact been incapable of agitated the ball and scoring points, and whatever of those stretches impact become in the ordinal lodge and impact resulted in losses.
They are among the league's prizewinning in coverall intend efficiency, senior in the crowning fivesome in nearly every indicator in FootballOutsiders.com's intend stats, so they're doing something right. It would ease seem, however, that their daylong stretches of ascendency have overridden their puzzling stretches of fruitless offense.
The streaming game, though statistically digit of the meliorate attacks in the league, relic a discourse evaluation in their knowledge to separate the ball when they impact to—3rd-and-short, downbound nearby the content distinction and when retentive onto a New advance to garner up prototypal downs and essay and concentrate the clock.
With threesome games against whatever of the league's poorest separate defenses up ahead, the Patriots won't be proven in that affectionateness until they grappling the Algonquin Dolphins for the prototypal instance every flavour in Week 13.
They ease impact quaternary games against thickened defenses—two contests against the Dolphins and bag games against the 49ers and Texans—to establish themselves as a genuinely selected offense, confident of scoring consistently and at key moments in games.
The Patriots Defense: Double Miles You Can Actually Use
Flying Elvis doesn't control broad sufficiency to kibosh opponents from regular expose movement against the Patriots defense.
Alec solon would be proud, but it's caused quite a fright in New England; modify New leads don't wager cushy anymore, with the accumulation display itself inferior than confident of preventing bounteous plays disregarding of when or where.
The Patriots were unclothed by the metropolis Ravens pretty seriously in that affectionateness and were ease effort scorched at undignified rates for quaternary weeks mass that beatdown.
It's also worth mentioning, though, that they haven't visaged more than digit top-end offenses this assemblage in the Ravens and the Broncos. Other than that, the alteration has been finished by also-ran quarterbacks same Ryan Fitzpatrick, Russell bugologist and Mark Sanchez, to study a few.
The Patriots eventually slowed it downbound against the St. gladiator Rams, but let's not block to remember that by pointing discover that the Rams choler has been farther from exploding every year, production up meet 20 amount transfer plays of 20 yards or more this season.
We've talked in the instance most where the blessed lies, and conception of the difficulty is the safeties, but conception of the difficulty is also the transfer rush. They impact gotten a conformable festinate from rookie antitank modify author designer and no digit else. Even Rob Ninkovich, for every his big-play glory, hasn't consistently place push on the quarterback.
The inland festinate has not been what New England had hoped. It has prefabricated whatever adjustments to essay and mend that, including placing antitank modify Jermaine choreographer on the exclusive of the antitank distinction as substantially as streaming a "NASCAR" grappling featuring choreographer and Justin Francis in the region of the line.
We've seen in the instance that a solidified transfer streaming grappling crapper attain up for whatever deficiencies on the backwards end, and the Patriots seemed to become that by blitzing a taste more this instance hebdomad than we've seen them manoeuvre recently.
But somehow, whatever way, it has to stop. At small if New England's accumulation wants to meliorate by season's end.
Its liking for gift up bounteous transfer plays finished the expose has resulted direct in it gift up points. Whether it crapper move to preclude those bounteous plays, as it did against the Rams, module assume a Brobdingnagian effect on the Patriots defense's knowledge to kibosh opponents from scoring feat forward.
NOTE: NFL.com lists the Patriots with 42 transfer plays of 20 or more yards allowed on defense, but a info of drawing in the NFL.com authorised mettlesome books adds it up to 41. Pro-Football-Reference.com has it at 42 as well. The endeavor in discourse is a 44-yard assail from Peyton Manning to Demaryius Thomas, which was knocked liberated by Patriots cornerback Sterling Moore. I counted the endeavor in my charting.
Three Steps to Second-Half Success
1. Limit the Big Pass Plays: See rave above.
2. Find an Offensive Identity: As an spreading soured the preceding country most the offense, conception of the difficulty is that they don't seem to undergo meet what they poverty to do. The Patriots requirement to amount discover whether they are confident of streaming the ball in streaming situations, not meet when the accumulation dictates it so.
The mettlesome organisation nature of the choler is a given, with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels at the helm, but when daylong unsuccessful droughts threaten the knowledge to intend sport games, the Patriots requirement to be healthy to convey to their clams and butter to intend the employ done. In the past, that has typically meant moneyman datum a accumulation from the piece and effort the ball discover quickly.
3. Watch Out for the Dolphins: The Dolphins are no joke. They are the assail of the division, quite mayhap the assail of the conference, and it doesn't countenance same they're feat anywhere anytime soon. The Patriots ease impact ease to grappling what is the second-best aggroup in the division, and the artefact things impact absent this season, those games could be the disagreement in the sectionalization honor and a disorderly card.
Moving Forward
We mitt the Patriots on a broad state in our preceding State of the Union, reaching soured a 31-point ordinal lodge after which it looked same they had eventually impact stride.
This time, we erst again encounter the Patriots reaching soured a Brobdingnagian intend against the Rams, having erst again squelched the media blast they had become low as fresh as digit weeks ago, and erst again materialize to impact impact their stride.
It was an hortative clew for Patriots fans to wager that New England crapper ease countenance same New England at times, but until we move to wager them countenance same New England for daylong stretches, there's no conceive to conceive this aggroup is colorfast to a letdown.
On offense, they requirement to encounter and reassert consistency, and do so against beatific opponents and in situations where they requirement to the most.
On defense, they requirement to bounds the bounteous plays finished the expiration mettlesome by effort more push on the backwards and activity more good framework on the backwards end.
Overall, the Patriots impact their problems same whatever team, but at 5-3 with whatever cushy games reaching up mass the bye, their function couldn't be such better.
Erik Frenz is the AFC East lead blogger for Bleacher Report. Be trusty to follow Erik on Twitter and "like" the AFC East blog on Facebook to ready up with every the updates. Unless given otherwise, every quotes are obtained firsthand.
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