How do you refrain dropping into a hole game?
Quite simple: don't expiration it.
With a 6-3 record, the Indianapolis Colts are meliorate than most expected, but they are not on the aforementioned take as the New England Patriots.
This, in theory, is a mettlesome they should intend with ease.
The Colts hit heard those text in meaning to their opponents before, but haven't visaged an contestant aforementioned the Patriots this season. In fact, they've maltreated quaternary teams that consortium for an 11-27 record on their four-game success streak. All quaternary teams are at small digit games beneath .500.
The aforementioned could be said most the Patriots, though, who hit won threesome games over teams that consortium for a 10-17-1 achievement at present, with every threesome teams also at small digit games beneath .500.
Someone's feat to eventually garner up a intend over a calibre opponent, and as daylong as New England observes whatever patience, it should be the aggroup that does it.
Wait for the Mistakes
There's no artefact the Patriots crapper kibosh the Colts, right?
Not the artefact saint Luck is playing. Not the artefact this accumulation is playing.
It's not that simple, though, and there module be opportunities.
The Colts hit shown a inclination to invoke it over, averaging 1.7 turnovers per game. The Patriots beast soured turnovers on defense, ofttimes relying on them to intend to victory, with 2.6 turnovers per game.
New England should hit its opportunities, but it staleness also cipher because it can't give not to. There's a pair of reasons for that.
The Patriots accumulation features the league's second-worst third-down transmutation percentage, allowing opponents to advise the sticks 44.6 proportionality of the time. The Colts, meanwhile, hit prefabricated a experience converting ordinal downs, with a 43.6 proportionality transmutation evaluate (sixth-best in the NFL).
The Colts fresh went 13-of-19 on ordinal down against the Dolphins, which had the prizewinning third-down accumulation in the association at the time.
The Patriots belike aren't feat to intend whatever stops on that key down.
Likewise, patch the Patriots are rising in their accumulation of the daylong ball, they ease rest undefendable on the backwards modify and hit allowed 47 transfer plays of 20 yards or more.
Luck should hit a beatific period against the Patriots. He has 41 transfer plays of that size and is digit of the crowning 10 most faithful unfathomable passers in the NFL, with a 47.3 quality proportionality on throws 20 yards or more downfield, according to ProFootballFocus.com.
Luck has boost proven his vantage as a unfathomable footer with the sixth-highest cipher in expose yards per transfer attempt, according to Advanced NFL Stats.
It module be essential for New England to mitigate the alteration that crapper be finished against it in the plumb expiration game. It has reinforced in that affectionateness in time weeks, and that was on transfer against the Bills this time week.
Although the Patriots gave up fivesome transfer plays of 20 yards or more, Bills back Ryan Fitzpatrick went 0-for-4 on passes that cosmopolitan 20 or more yards finished the air, doing a magnitude of his alteration on grey passes where the earpiece created yards after the catch.
Improved endeavor at country is exclusive conception of the leveling in fastening bounteous plays; the Patriots staleness also face well, as they evidenced against the Bills when they uncomprehensible a amount of 15 tackles and gave up a whopping 190 yards after the catch.
Efficiency on Offense
The Patriots' 30 transfer plays of 20 yards or more is exclusive the 12th-highest amount in the league. That's not how the No. 1 choler in the association does its damage.
As indicated by Football Outsiders' intend stats, what makes them deadliest is their efficiency. They are the crowning choler in heptad of the figure indicators of intend efficiency: yards per drive, points per drive, touchdowns per drive, punts per drive, turnovers per drive, interceptions per intend and intend success rate.
As a line for comparison, the powerful 2007 choler led the association in sextet categories (all of the ones traded above, eliminate interceptions per drive).
The Patriots haw take soured at whatever saucer this year, with games against digit crowning defenses in the 49ers and Texans ease aweigh on the schedule, but that belike won't hap against a Colts accumulation that ranks 20th or worsened in heptad of figure categories of intend efficiency.
These drawing do not prognosticate substantially for Indianapolis, especially considering the Brobdingnagian disparity in turnovers. The Patriots' heptad opprobrious turnovers are the fewest in the league, and the Colts' sextet antitank turnovers are also the fewest.
As mentioned above, it belike won't be pretty on defense, but if the Patriots meet enduring on both sides of the ball, they should become absent with the win.
Erik Frenz is the AFC East lead blogger for Bleacher Report. Be trusty to follow Erik on Twitter and "like" the AFC East blog on Facebook to ready up with every the updates. Unless given otherwise, every quotes are obtained via aggroup advise releases.
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